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An ex-colonel from the special forces, government minister Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he said, in comments that exceed previous warnings by his superior, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was blunt language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of minister for the military.

A Swift Political Ascent

Naturally for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being over-promoted as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the experience and shrewdness to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the 2024 election. He was elevated later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his supporters began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a wariness about the rapid rise of a high flyer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is completely untested.”