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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime underperformers rising collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still