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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.