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Only two days before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win although missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of ballots added after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But the winner added half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, renters and people squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump last year went for the progressive this year. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he does so then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these Republicans on the island with a high participation. I think there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and residents all went for Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. But no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see more of that – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in America could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.