A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
