A Prediction Market Participant Made $Nearly Half a Million from Bets on Maduro's Downfall.
An individual profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was officially announced, raising questions about whether someone profited from confidential information of American actions.
Sudden Shift in Wagers
Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office by the month's conclusion increased in the hours before President Donald Trump announced on the weekend that Maduro had been apprehended.
A particular user, which registered on the site in December and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a initial bet of $32,537.
The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a cryptographic address for identification.
Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement
Platform data shows that traders assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the prior Friday.
Yet these probabilities had climbed to over 10% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the first hours of Saturday, suggesting a rapid movement in positions immediately prior to the official statement was made.
"This specific wager has all the signs of a transaction based on inside information," said a financial reform advocate.
A handful of other traders also earned large payouts from bets on the same outcome.
Political Attention Emerges
Politicians are growing concerned.
A bill introduced on Monday seeks to ban government employees from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market.
Industry Context
Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the past few years, with users able to predict everything from sports to current affairs.
The industry were examined under the previous administration. But it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency.
Trading on insider information is against the law in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting industry.
A company executive for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."
