‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Stock.
The ripple effects of a military engagement being fought nearly a significant distance away are now being felt in India's kitchens.
As military actions on Iran impede energy deliveries through the vital shipping lane, stocks of cooking gas are dwindling across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases close completely.
Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.
"The state of affairs is alarming. LPG simply is unavailable," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are turning to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."
Localized Effects
In a western metro, media reports say up to a 20% of eateries are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their gas stocks have depleted with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers note a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.
Official Position
Yet, the government maintains there is adequate supply.
India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and officials say supplies are being prioritized to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.
About 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the hostilities.
The relevant department says that it directed refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".
"Some panic booking and accumulation has been sparked by rumors. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a ministry representative.
Growing Panic
Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a gas outlet. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.
According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.
India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.
Based on shipping data and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The key weakness is LPG, experts note.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.
Refineries can tweak operations to extract a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.
In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the key factor to monitor in the coming weeks."
What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.
An industry representative states price gouging.
"Distributors are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."
For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
